Aspen Updates from Sally Shiekman
I am regularly espousing the deep value of the Aspen, Snowmass, and the Roaring Fork Valley, and it is clear that I am not alone.
It's time to dig out those skis and if you are ready to move closer to the lifts, give me a call.
It's time to dig out those skis and if you are ready to move closer to the lifts, give me a call.
Navigating the Potential Downturn in Real Estate
August 2, 2024
Concerns about a potential downturn in the real estate market are growing. Here’s a look at the key factors and predictions for the remaining 2024 year and how they compare to what's happening in Aspen.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing sales to increase by 13% in 2024, with existing home prices rising by 2.6% by August. Housing inventory remains low, 36% below pre-COVID levels, which could increase prices if interest rates don’t drop. High mortgage rates and slow inflation cooling have delayed potential rate cuts, adding to market challenges.
Experts overwhelmingly say that a housing market crash is unlikely in 2024. The lack of supply, a lingering effect of the last housing crash, prevents prices from falling significantly. Mortgage rates are expected to fall this year as inflation continues to slow, and the Federal Reserve potentially eases its monetary policy. Lower rates make homeownership more affordable and stimulate market activity.
According to a recent report by Forbes Advisor, the challenging housing market has many would-be buyers wondering if home prices will ever go down. However, despite high mortgage rates and prices, home prices increased by 6.49% year-over-year in March 2024. Experts believe that a market crash remains unlikely unless there is a significant increase in supply or a major economic downturn.
In Colorado, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, which experienced a housing boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market is now seeing increasing inventory and price cuts. According to Reventure CEO Nick Gerli, up to 30% of the properties in this market are experiencing price cuts. This could signal a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market in those regions.
Aspen faces a significant inventory shortage, with even more pronounced scarcity due to limited land for new developments and strict zoning regulations. This keeps prices high and competitive. While national home prices are expected to rise modestly, Aspen has seen more substantial increases due to its desirability and the influx of affluent buyers.
Sellers should maintain their homes well and work with local agents who understand Aspen's market dynamics. Pricing competitively based on current conditions and comparable properties will help attract serious buyers quickly.
In conclusion, navigating a potential real estate downturn requires staying informed and strategic. While national trends provide a broad overview, Aspen's unique market highlights the importance of localized insights. Buyers and sellers can make the best decisions in this complex landscape by leveraging expert analysis and staying attuned to national and local trends. If you or someone you know has real estate interest in Aspen, Snowmass, or the Roaring Fork Valley, please contact me, Sally Shiekman, at 970-948-7530 or visit me online at www.sallyshiekman.com. Your proactive approach can make a significant difference in this dynamic market.
National Perspective:
Interest rates and elections have a complex relationship. Historically, rates don’t consistently drop during election years, as the Federal Reserve bases its decisions on economic conditions rather than politics. For 2024, expected interest rate decreases have not yet occurred, affecting the broader market more than the luxury segment.The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing sales to increase by 13% in 2024, with existing home prices rising by 2.6% by August. Housing inventory remains low, 36% below pre-COVID levels, which could increase prices if interest rates don’t drop. High mortgage rates and slow inflation cooling have delayed potential rate cuts, adding to market challenges.
Experts overwhelmingly say that a housing market crash is unlikely in 2024. The lack of supply, a lingering effect of the last housing crash, prevents prices from falling significantly. Mortgage rates are expected to fall this year as inflation continues to slow, and the Federal Reserve potentially eases its monetary policy. Lower rates make homeownership more affordable and stimulate market activity.
According to a recent report by Forbes Advisor, the challenging housing market has many would-be buyers wondering if home prices will ever go down. However, despite high mortgage rates and prices, home prices increased by 6.49% year-over-year in March 2024. Experts believe that a market crash remains unlikely unless there is a significant increase in supply or a major economic downturn.
In Colorado, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, which experienced a housing boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market is now seeing increasing inventory and price cuts. According to Reventure CEO Nick Gerli, up to 30% of the properties in this market are experiencing price cuts. This could signal a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market in those regions.
Aspen Area Perspective
The luxury real estate market in Aspen is not just thriving; it's booming. High-net-worth individuals and investors continue to seek properties here, driven by Aspen's unique appeal as a premier destination for both winter and summer activities. Unlike the national market, Aspen's buyers are less affected by interest rate fluctuations and often pay with cash, a unique aspect that sets it apart.Aspen faces a significant inventory shortage, with even more pronounced scarcity due to limited land for new developments and strict zoning regulations. This keeps prices high and competitive. While national home prices are expected to rise modestly, Aspen has seen more substantial increases due to its desirability and the influx of affluent buyers.
Preparing for Market Challenges
For buyers in Aspen, flexibility and understanding the market's competitive nature are crucial. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage can provide a competitive edge, even if it is not strictly necessary.Sellers should maintain their homes well and work with local agents who understand Aspen's market dynamics. Pricing competitively based on current conditions and comparable properties will help attract serious buyers quickly.
In conclusion, navigating a potential real estate downturn requires staying informed and strategic. While national trends provide a broad overview, Aspen's unique market highlights the importance of localized insights. Buyers and sellers can make the best decisions in this complex landscape by leveraging expert analysis and staying attuned to national and local trends. If you or someone you know has real estate interest in Aspen, Snowmass, or the Roaring Fork Valley, please contact me, Sally Shiekman, at 970-948-7530 or visit me online at www.sallyshiekman.com. Your proactive approach can make a significant difference in this dynamic market.
Testimonials
Read moreI received your gift card, and want to express my appreciation. Quite a nice surprise! Also to acknowledge all your help with our transactions and rentals over the past few years. It turns out that, directly and including the new Tahoe home, you were involved with five different properties we have had owned over the years. (And you have seen Owl Meadows as well, making six.) Which is quite a few for small time investors. You got us out of the properties we needed to get out of, and into one that was just fine for as long as we needed it. Then out again, as we moved on. We hope to see you on our next Aspen visit. And we will toast you at Valenti’s!
Sally worked with us to understand our needs, out architectural preferences, and our financial capabilities. She patiently showed us properties from Aspen to Glenwood Springs, and we fell in love with our house in Carbondale.
Sally brokered both sides of our first home purchase this last fall. We felt that Sally always had our best interest in mind, carefully and thoughtfully explained the unknown to us (as novices) and took the time to help make this monumental life moment easy for us. Furthermore, her services didn't stop after we closed, she still checks in to ensure we are comfortable and settled in. She is a wonderful resource to connect with regardless of your home purchase needs. We are forever thankful the Sally Shiekman was our real estate agent and in our corner, thank you!!!
Sally recently helped my wife and I to purchase a building site in the Missouri Heights area. Sally made the purchase a great experience; she showed us much of what the valley had to offer over a several days time frame. Sally presented us with information on what was currently on the market. We have since purchase a property and are already projecting an increase in value. Sally has kept in touch since the purchase providing valuable information.
We feel that Sally is always looking out for our best interests. She has a great knowledge of the market, is diligent, honest and has integrity. We would not consider making another move with out Sally’s help. She is the best!
Sally and her team were such a pleasure to work with. When deciding to sell our home, she gave some excellent advice on what we could do to improve how it shows without any pressure to do so. She’s a realist who tells it as it is and we very much appreciated that. She gave great advice when we asked for it, and led us to a surprise free closing on a timeline that worked best for us. If we are back in the roaring fork valley again, Sally will be our first call!
Sally was very professional, persistent without pressuring, and handled all details necessary to complete the sale. When it came time to sell that property and purchase another, although both my husband and I had become good friends with many other local realtors, we both felt strongly that Sally should be our listing and buying agent.
Sally always carefully explained each part of the selling/buying process, answered every question patiently, and was completely honest about the possible outcome(s) of the entire event. Buying/selling a home is an emotional and exciting time; Sally has the ability to keep things calm while retaining that important sense of excitement.
Sally is the best. We have worked with her twice. Accept no substitute!
I want to thank you for all the work you did to sell my Aspen condo. Now that I have worked with you as a buyer and a seller, I am definitely impressed with your professionalism. I know that you are busy, but you are very organized and thorough so that your clients get excellent service. I think the hardest part of any real estate deal is negotiating a contract and getting that contract to closing. I appreciate you helping me get a full price contract with only minor contingencies, and then following each deadline so that nothing fell through the cracks.
Sally went above and beyond to at first find us a home to suit our needs and finally to sell our home in a timely manner… Sally guided us through all of the details of our sale and was a terrific advocate for us in the process. We wouldn’t consider using anyone else in the future.
Sally was so good to work with during our entire home buying process. We know we took a lot of her time getting to know the market and what was available. I can't say enough good things about her and her interactions with us. Her communication was so very helpful, and she always followed up. She either responded immediately to calls, texts, and emails or let us know when she could get back to us. We highly recommend using Sally.
Sally is a consummate professional who knows her market and takes great pride in being thorough, direct, and positive. I was particularly impressed with her ability to balance patience with execution, given the property we were selling was quite old. I also appreciated the frankness around expectations, and I am sure that pace of closure for our sale agreement in a matter of days, was due to her. If you want to best, she is it.
Sally is a true professional. Her open manner, honesty and knowledge of the real estate market are outstanding. I would highly recommend her to any potential buyer or seller in the valley.
Through Sally’s efforts our transactions went through without any problems and we received the highest sales price for a unit of our size in the complex. Sally is a true professional in all respects and provided us with top quality service. She made the process easy and painless. Should we ever require a real estate broker in the future, you can be sure we will call Sally.
The most important thing that Sally did for us was to make us comfortable with the experience. She answered all of our novice questions and understood that we were truly starting from the beginning. She showed us a wide range of property so that we had a full view of the valley real estate market.
I wanted to express my sincere appreciation for the fantastic job you did in helping me find a home. I had been through the process several times before, and my experiences have been mixed. However, after working with Sally, I believe I have truly seen someone who wants to consistently provide the absolute best service for their client. Sally’s professionalism, concern for my specific needs, and consistency in following-up on every detail went beyond my expectations.
I highly recommend Sally Shiekman as a realtor. She was always available to answer any questions I had and was on top of every deadline in the contract. I am a busy mortgage lender and so I appreciate Sally’s attention to detail, integrity and genuine concern.
Sally Shiekman has acted as my real estate broker in 4 different transactions. Her professional manner, close attention to the market and new additions to it, attention to detail, and willingness to do what it takes to find the perfect buyer and/or property make her an exceptional broker.
Sally was there with guidance throughout the process of purchasing our home in Snowmass Village. She is knowledgeable about the markets from Aspen to down-valley. We definitely recommend Sally for anyone who is looking for a real estate professional.
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